The 2026 US Treasury Risk Assessments: a practitioner primer

The US Department of Treasury published three national risk assessments in March 2026. Here’s what’s in each and why it matters.

NMLRA - National Money Laundering Risk Assessment

The fifth iteration covers January 2024 to December 2025.

• Median loss in sentenced money laundering cases up 150% in five years - from $208,000 to $526,000.
• Internet crime losses exceeded $16 billion in 2024, up 33% year on year.
• Pig-butchering scams: $5.8B in reported 2024 losses, up 47%.
• Chinese money laundering networks amplify drug trafficking and other predicate crimes with professional laundering expertise at scale.
• AI tools now used to create fraudulent communications, identities, and websites at scale.

For practitioners, the typologies section - shell companies, front companies, money mules, CMLNs, digital asset laundering - is the most operationally useful.

Download NMLRA 2026 →

NTFRA - National Terrorist Financing Risk Assessment

The 2026 NTFRA includes a structural change: for the first time it covers TCOs designated as Foreign Terrorist Organizations.

• 15 cartels designated as FTOs since February 2025: Sinaloa, CJNG, Tren de Aragua, MS-13, La Nueva Familia Michoacana, Cartel del Golfo, Clan del Golfo, Cártel del Noreste, Carteles Unidos, Gran Grif, Viv Ansanm, Los Lobos, Los Choneros, Barrio 18, and Cartel de los Soles.
• Financing methods documented: bulk cash, structured deposits, P2P, MSBs, trade-based money laundering, digital assets, and CMLNs.
• FTO designation changes the screening obligation. These names are now on OFAC lists under counterterrorism authorities.

Download NTFRA 2026 →

NPFRA - National Proliferation Financing Risk Assessment

• DPRK uses IT workers placed in foreign companies to generate revenue, moving funds via digital assets.
• Iran uses front companies, shell companies, and intermediaries despite maximum pressure sanctions.
• Russian entities circumventing export controls for US-origin dual-use items.
• Chinese individuals playing an expanding role in sanctions evasion facilitation.

Download NPFRA 2026 →